2011-01-14 (China Military News cited from ft.com and written by Philip Stephens) -- One of the under-reported changes in the global geopolitical balance last year was the US's return to Asia. One of the worrying changes was the notable deterioration in the Sino-American relationship. On this much Barack Obama and Hu Jintao should be able to agree during the Chinese president's upcoming visit to the White House.
It is when they turn to the "why" that things are likely to get tricky. "You started it" has thus far been the shared refrain. So Mr Hu will be tempted to protest that the second of the two developments flowed from the first: the chill was a consequence of a US strategy to contain China. Mr Obama's riposte will be that America's diplomatic and military re-engagement in the region was an inevitable response to China's decision to throw its weight around.
This, of course, is before the two leaders get to the economics. Most of the headlines from Mr Hu's state visit next week will probably be generated by differences over trade and exchange rate policy. China's huge trade surplus generates strong protectionist pressure in the US. Washington's oft-repeated demand for revaluation of the renminbi is seen in Beijing as unwarranted intrusion in China's economic affairs.
These are the issues where the domestic political pressures most obviously bite. Mr Obama is presiding over a jobless recovery. Mr Hu is under constant pressure from the Chinese exporters who have driven the country's growth. That said, there are mechanisms to manage the differences; and they tend to simmer rather than explode.
Taking a longer view, the success or failure of the White House summit will depend on whether the two presidents manage to break out of the loop of deepening mistrust over the balance of power in east Asia. The dangerous flashpoints in the relationship are to be found on the Korean peninsula and the seas off China's eastern coastline.
On the face of it, there are powerful incentives to defuse the tensions. Neither country has anything to gain from an escalation of what already looks like an east Asian arms race. Both, albeit in different ways, are threatened by the unpredictability of the nuclear-armed regime in Pyongyang.
