2011-10-18 (China Military News cited from http://the-diplomat.com/china-power/2011/10/17/dangerous-imbalance-on-taiwan/">the-diplomat.com and by Michael Mazza) -- The year is 2015. During a routine patrol over the Taiwan Strait, two Chinese Su-30MKK pilots, known for their ‘hot-dogging,’ cross the median line, which for years has served as the unofficial divider between Taiwan and mainland China. Picking up the transgressor on radar, Taiwan’s air force scrambles two aging F-16 A/B fighter jets to intercept them. The pilots of the F-16s, sold to Taiwan during the early 1990s, find that the more modern Su-30s are simply too fast and too manoeuvrable for them.
The Taiwanese pilots have grown used to this. They have also grown used to these particular Chinese pilots and their particular brand of showboating. Still, they are surprised when on this occasion, the tandem don’t quickly turn back, instead pressing on towards Taiwan’s coastline. Taiwan’s air defences raise their alert status and a routine encounter quickly becomes a crisis in the making.
Troublingly, this scenario isn’t particularly far-fetched. This past June, two Chinese Su-27 fighters crossed the Taiwan Strait’s median line while chasing a US spy plane. Taiwanese F-16s intercepted the Su-27s, which promptly turned back. An unverified report, disputed by Taiwan’s defence ministry, indicated that six other Chinese jets violated Taiwanese airspace on the same day.
The Chinese military, too, has had a problem with independent-minded officers dragging Beijing into crises. It was a reckless Chinese fighter pilot, for example, that collided with a US EP-3 plane in 2001, forcing it to crash land on Hainan island and sparking an international row with the new Bush administration. Some observers believe that recent clashes between US and Chinese maritime forces may have been similarly prompted by overzealous Chinese boat captains.
In a ‘split-the-baby’ decision announced last month—one aimed primarily at avoiding Chinese ire—the Obama administration decided it won’t sell Taiwan the 66 new F-16 C/D aircraft that Taipei has been requesting, instead offering to upgrade Taiwan’s existing fleet of F-16 A/Bs. Defending this position, the administration has argued that the upgrades will provide Taiwan with the same capabilities as new C/Ds, and that they will do so at a lower price.
Given that Taiwan prefers the new aircraft and is prepared to pay for them, the latter point is irrelevant. To argue, meanwhile, that ‘the upgraded A/Bs will provide essentially C/D quality planes,’ is disingenuous. While the radar and strike capabilities of the two planes are comparable, upgraded A/Bs will lack the more powerful engines of the F-16 C/D that are needed to match China’s most modern fighter jets.
http://the-diplomat.com/china-power/2011/10/17/dangerous-imbalance-on-taiwan/">
October 18th, 2011 at 8:25 am
There was an imbalance since 1964
Well-loved. Like or Dislike:
11 
4
October 18th, 2011 at 4:47 pm
For god sake I am really sick of reading about these so called western "experts" yapping about old news and grossly exaggerated perceived threats again and again. Please tell us something we dont know. This article's content has been already repeatedly discussed on innumerous occasions months ago and so gives the same feel as a slice of bread thats gone stale.
That aside if I want to read about fantasies I go buy a novel not read some editorial article. To all western commentators, please either keep up or shut up.
Hot debate. What do you think?
6 
4
October 19th, 2011 at 7:40 pm
Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.
Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike:
0 
4
October 20th, 2011 at 10:03 am
They may do incursions here and there but China does not have the capability to invade Taiwan. China lacks the amphibious capacity to move enough troops over. Any attempt to airlift in the necessary equipment/troops would in all likelihood be decimated by Taiwans Pac 2's and their AF. For all thier thugery, the ChiCom leadership seems to understand that in order to take over Taiwan they would in essence have to burn it down. If they are persuing a scorched earth policy, then there may not be much the US or Taiwan can do to stop them. However, I think they want and need to keep Taiwan viable for their own economy. Can you imagine the efficiency of slave labor coupled to the quality control and moderinzation that Taiwan posseses????? The US would not stand by and allow Taiwan to be taken by conventional means. Aside from being a great customer from our planes and weapons systems we also benifit from an economic/industrial standpoint. China can sabre rattle all they want, but can they cannot afford to piss off their most important trading partner which is the US.
Like or Dislike:
4 
3
October 20th, 2011 at 10:11 am
Conventionally. They have enough landing vehicles to move troops over. But the amphibious assault would only come much later in the conflict. If it was the initial drive, it would result with too many Chinese war dead as they battled across the beaches.
The most logical approach is to destroy military and civilian facilities across taiwan at a range that the taiwan military would be unable to respond to. When it becomes clear that taiwan has reached near submission due to losing much of its valuable military and civilian assets. Then ground forces can casually move in to do sweep up cleaning and occupation.
While airports, highways, factories, and power plants are important assets. I dont think they are worth losing PLA over. Id prefer if they were simply destroyed by ballistic and cruise missiles.
Like or Dislike:
2 
4
October 20th, 2011 at 10:32 am
Conventionally, the US will intervene. The only way would be nuclear which I think China will not do. It will arm Japan, South Korea and the rest of the freedom loving Southeast Asians including Australia will be worried and will start arming also. Also if they went nuclear the American, Japanese, Taiwanese and South Korean corporations will put a screeching halt on consumer orders and China will collapse economically. With China, they are the top 5 in world.
Like or Dislike:
4 
2
October 20th, 2011 at 10:41 am
I dont think the us would. Because any intervention in taiwan would suddenly include the americans as legitimate targets. China would nuke every american in the final escalation.
Like or Dislike:
2 
3
October 20th, 2011 at 10:57 am
China has only less than a thousand bombs. the US has over 8,000 can be delivered multiple ways including over 200 B-1, B-2, B-52 not to mention F-117's.
Like or Dislike:
4 
1
October 20th, 2011 at 10:58 am
China has been building nuclear weapons since 1964. They would have to have more than thousand bombs by now. Those bombers would be irrelevant in a nuclear war because Chinese ICBMs would be delivered onto them before they even left the ground.
Like or Dislike:
2 
3
October 20th, 2011 at 11:11 am
The Americans knows when your missiles just comes off the silo or from the subs. Plus the Norad knows whats in the terrestrial skies before it enters the atmosphere.The SAC forces can respond in seconds. They have drilled this before during the cold war. They are experts already against the Russians. You guys are just coming to this scenarios. You've practically replaced the Russians so the US keeps its vigilance more than before because now there are two of you.
Like or Dislike:
4 
1
October 20th, 2011 at 7:30 pm
That is why with all these US nuclear threats China must build up its strength.
All the Chinese need is enough missiles to penetrate the US missile shield to destroy 50% of US. Yeah I know China will be pulverised to the ground.
Btw don't forget the radiation fallout is from east to west.
Like or Dislike:
2 
3
October 20th, 2011 at 8:17 pm
No winners in an all-out nuclear war. We will all be losers. What will be left will be the dying. Rational and cooler heads should prevail. Let China rise peacefully. Let the US recede from the global stage gradually.
Well-loved. Like or Dislike:
7 
0
October 20th, 2011 at 8:34 pm
Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.
Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike:
1 
4
October 20th, 2011 at 8:55 pm
Agree with TienFei. The Chinese need not have to win a nuclear war.The US has 10000 ten thousand nw. China has officially 20 which can hit the US.I think the PLA must have 1000 one thousand nw.Assuming the US can hit China with 8000 eight thousand nw,China has to hit the US with 500 which is good enough.
Btw the US president who orders the nuclear war should be arrested for crimes against humanity,tried and executed.
For the info of readers please read the secret files on US plans to use nw in the 60s against Soviet Union.The US proposed using hundreds of nw from Germany until Moscow. Lord Mountbatten said it was the mind of a mad man who drew up this plan. You never know.
Like or Dislike:
2 
3
October 21st, 2011 at 6:03 am
Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.
Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike:
1 
4
October 21st, 2011 at 10:21 am
Tienfei: love your biased comments. China would not win a conventional war against the majority of the world. HAHA all we have to do is stop trading and the China miracle collapses. And BTW China is not the largest economy stop peddling your PLA propaganda. You brainwashed zombie. Your a joke buddy. Bring it on the freedom loving nations will crush and contain ur nation who have no freedom of speech!! And BYW im not American
Like or Dislike:
4 
1
October 21st, 2011 at 10:41 am
Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.
Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike:
1 
4
October 21st, 2011 at 11:44 am
Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.
Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike:
1 
4
October 21st, 2011 at 12:25 pm
Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.
Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike:
1 
4
October 21st, 2011 at 12:41 pm
Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.
Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike:
1 
4
October 21st, 2011 at 2:30 pm
Get a grip on reality folks! The fate of the world is not based upon a zero-sum equation. China can rise peacefully while maintaining a military force that is commensurate with a great power. The U.S. can also maintain a leading place in the world without having to "hold China down".
What everyone should be focusing on is how China and America can use their collective strength to make the world better. One country rising (China) does not mean that the other (America) must necessarily diminish.
Neither China nor the U.S. can claim moral superiority. Both have done some pretty horrible things in the course of their history. What matters is how each government works to make the lives of their people better going forward.
China and the U.S. can work together to ensure the safety of international shipping through joint military operations. China and America can work together to better the environment by wielding their great combined economic power to foster "green energy" innovation and deployment. China and the U.S. can work together in many ways to benefit the Chinese, the Americans, and the rest of the world.
Why do I never see comments to articles on this site that are actually thoughtful and through-provoking? There's never more than nationalistic chest thumping and poorly thought-out vitriol. Put some of your energy into making a solution instead of stirring the pot of racist nationalism.
Well-loved. Like or Dislike:
6 
0
October 21st, 2011 at 7:12 pm
Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.
Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike:
1 
4
October 21st, 2011 at 8:07 pm
Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.
Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike:
1 
4
October 23rd, 2011 at 5:18 pm
The headline should read:
Dangerous US military superiority over China.
When there is dangerous imbalance in power'the stronger power is inclined to act unilaterally like the US has been doing since WW2.
Fortunately China aint as defenceless as before.The US will win in any showdown undoubtedly but the problem is China can cause unacceptable damage to US forces and soil.The PLA ability to raise costs will increase.
As for Taiwan,independence is a dead end unless the US wants to camp there.In the next 30 to 50 years the PLA military might will increase significantly so that even if the US were to unleash its full full spectrum of forces,space weapons included,China will make the US homeland a rubble.
That is the stark reality facing the Pentagon.
Like or Dislike:
2 
4
October 23rd, 2011 at 10:03 pm
Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.
Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike:
1 
4
November 17th, 2011 at 4:45 pm
So the US has set up a base or bases in Darwin. This is to defend the US and Australia from attack.Which country will be bold to attack Australia let alone the US?Indonesia?India. You got it China.The Chinese aint that dumb.
In the annals of Chinese martial arts,you don't confront a kung fu master who is far superior to you.
Make no mistake China is the real enemy.The US has 700 bases world wide to defend the US and allies.Now imagine 90% no 50% of these bases were closed and troops deployed home,in one stroke the US problems can be halved or reduced by 90%.
But heck no. The US will carry on with its military plans because this is the only thing it knows. History is full of empires having risen and fallen.China aint going to take over the world.They have far too many internal problems.
All I know ithe US will eventually become a banana republic.Before that happens,the Pentagon may provoke and ignite a war with China.You never know
Thet will get their just desserts.
Well I just hope the perpetrators of such an act do not go and hide in a bunker.
Like or Dislike:
3 
2
November 17th, 2011 at 5:08 pm
Hidden due to low comment rating. Click here to see.
Poorly-rated. Like or Dislike:
1 
4
November 17th, 2011 at 5:11 pm
Sun Tzu tells us to show weakness when you have strength. Show strength when you are weak. But this is irrelevant. China went to war with the us in 1951 to drive the americans out of North Korea. And China is much stronger now than only 3 yrs after the revolution. China would have no trouble with america.
Like or Dislike:
2 
4