2011-10-18 (China Military News cited from http://english.chosun.com/site/data/html_dir/2011/10/18/2011101801289.html">chosun.com) -- China will not support North Korea militarily in case of a conflict between North and South, according to a Chinese academic. Prof. Chu Shulong (55) of Tsinghua University was speaking at a seminar on Korea-China security strategy at the Seoul Press Center on Monday.
"I believe China will call for a diplomatic solution even if the North is attacked by South Korea or the U.S.," Chu said. "Most Chinese don't think a reunited Korea would stand against China, even if the U.S. keeps stationing troops or bases on the peninsula. China won't mind Korean reunification, even if it is led by South Korea."
Chu said the Beijing-Pyongyang relationship is friendly and cooperative on the surface, but the truth is very different. "Chinese leaders, bureaucrats and citizens neither like nor support many North Korean policies and actions it has taken at home and abroad, including its development of missiles and nuclear weapons and its attacks on South Korea last year," he added.
But he also cast doubt on the "strategic cooperative partnership" South Korea and China have declared. The two "don't have the same strategic concerns and understanding, even though they currently share some basic strategic interests."
With a doctorate from George Washington University, Chu is an influential expert on the U.S. and Sino-U.S. relations. He has previously called on Beijing to distance itself from the North
October 18th, 2011 at 8:26 am
China would have to defend North Korea. South Koreans arent a threat, but americans are. american occupation would stretch all the way towards the Yalu.
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October 18th, 2011 at 8:37 am
It would be very short sighted for China to give up on its allies. Especially since China isnt very far down on that list. When a South Korean vessel was destroyed by a North Korean submarine, China defended its ally to prevent a similar attack on the North Koreans. China and the us just werent designed to get along.
There can only be one tiger.
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October 19th, 2011 at 1:24 am
This article was made by south korean
please be aware of that
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October 20th, 2011 at 10:20 am
China and Russia have left the North Korean Air force to rot. They are not willing to modernize it which means the beginning of North Korea's demise. Why do you think they keep provoking the South to a war? So that they can use their bomb and while they have 40% of their planes flying. A few of them crashed when they nearly had a war this year. They were testing how they will respond rapidly in case a war breaks out with the South. Ten years from now will be a different story. They won't have an air force. Their population will starving (It already is now) and either they give it up or make a final showdown with the US and South Korea.
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October 20th, 2011 at 10:26 am
They said that ten years ago. The most modern aircraft South Korea operates is the F16 and the most modern aircraft the North Koreans operate is the Mig 29. So that keeps the two pretty balanced. With the North Korean nuke, everything became lop sided. It didnt matter what airforce the other side operated because North Korea came in possession of a nuclear weapon.
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October 20th, 2011 at 10:33 am
I take that back. South Korea's F 15's would be at a higher class than North Korea's Mig 29s. North Korea would have to have possession of Su 27s to balance out the F 15s. But as I said earlier, the possession of their nuclear weapon made much of this irrelevant.
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October 20th, 2011 at 10:50 am
A number of those Mig29 crashed this year which means the maintenance is poor. Its one thing to have them in paper its another thing to keep it flying. The South Korean Air force will dominate the skies in a few hours of the initial war. Nuclear wise, the US has enough stockpile in Korea and tomahawks and F-15K's can also deliver them. Not to mention its ICBMs and Virginia-class based tridents. Remember the B-2's used Daisy cutters to bomb Irag and Afghanistan just to test its capability and they made it back and forth and that's from Nebraska and Missouri approx. 14,000 miles. North Korea has not perfected their delivery system but even so the Patriots are more than a match to their missiles what ever they have.
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October 20th, 2011 at 10:57 am
No, because as it stands just between North Korea and South Korea, North Korea already has overwhelming advantage from it nukes alone. This would mean if the war was solely between North and South, the North would ultimately win. If the us responds to North Korea's aggression, then China would also rightfully intervene to protect its ally.
This is why there was no similar response to the attack made to the South Korean warship by a North Korean submarine. It made no difference who initiated the attack.
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October 20th, 2011 at 11:03 am
NKorea only has a few nukes by now. the US has a stockpile of small nuclear ones similar in strength that was dropped in Hiroshima.
The South will never attack the North not unless the North provokes them. They would rather see them starve to death and give up or reunite with them like Germany.
It's China's little orphan that's giving the Politburo leadership lots of headache.
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October 20th, 2011 at 11:06 am
North Korea doesnt have enough nukes to take on the united states. But China does.
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October 20th, 2011 at 11:08 am
Even if they were attacked, and they were. South Korea and the us would be reluctant to respond.
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October 20th, 2011 at 11:18 am
Like I said the North was simply trying to provoke. Why would you attack someone who is dying? Since the North had a bomb China and Russia refused to upgrade its airforce. That tells you something.
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October 20th, 2011 at 11:24 am
Because its already pretty lopsided once they had received the bomb. No upgrade in the South Korean airforce would have ever been a proper counter to that. Its quite interesting that the west believes North Korea is going to be crushed under its own weight. But I guess as long as they believe that. Its better for everyone.
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October 20th, 2011 at 11:29 am
Well, go read the reports from the World Food Program. Maybe that will enlighten you. Be open minded and you'll see how poor the country is.
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October 20th, 2011 at 11:37 am
I will believe it when I see it. Their GDP growth rate in 2009 was ok.
GDP growth 3.7% (2009)[2]
"Some South Korean companies have launched joint ventures in areas like animation and computer software. And Chinese traders do a booming business back and forth across the China–North Korea border. A number of South Korean enterprises are mainly active in a specially developed industrial zone in Kaesong Industrial Region and Chinese enterprises are known to be involved in a variety of activities in trade and manufacturing in North Korea... Ch'ongryŏn, the pro-DPRK General Association of Korean Residents in Japan, broadcast on their TV in 2008 a TV film in 3 parts featuring foreign investment and business in North Korea...
The flat LCD television factory in North Korea is funded by the Ch'ongryŏn.[26]"
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October 20th, 2011 at 2:14 pm
to james kampilan, how stupid you are to stupid like most stupid dumb ass, you realize that the Philippines until now very dependent on the good china, china without the Philippines will experience a crisis such as the American economy, without the investment from china only the Philippines will be a lot of unemployment, do not ever American dream can help the Philippines economy, America will soon be without china bankrupt, announcing that you are now in America a lot of you think the people of Japan will defend the Philippines, there is no intention at all in the hearts of the people of Japan to assist the Philippines, only how to control and colonize again the Philippines, just as American lackeys kingdom japan now and then with heavy hearts kingdom forced Japan to participate in defending the U.S. for the benefit of America is not the Philippines, you know it's stupid, mind you james kampilan dumb. I as a person whose eyes are open wide pilipina how Americans use the Philippines to fight so that the American nation escape from the devastation of war, you know it's stupid brother, states the Philippines will be destroyed is used as a base American war, back to the stone age because it destroyed the entire infrastructure of the Philippines, and conversely the entire American infrastructure will remain intact without war untouched
Hot debate. What do you think?
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October 20th, 2011 at 8:34 pm
@Tienfei
Can you tell me how many nukes China has and how many the US has?
Cus if you really knew, then you wouldn't say "North Korea doesnt have enough nukes to take on the united states. But China does" quite so confidently.
Nuclear capability is one area where China is hopelessly outgunned by the US and that is a strategic fact.
To help you out... China has around 400 nukes, of which probably 100 could reach continental US. Whereas the US currently has 5013 nukes, all of which could knock off Hu's hair-piece delivered via an array of platforms.
At the height of the Cold War - the US had over 37,000 nuclear warheads - and the USSR had around 30,000 nukes.
China could never hope to gain parity with the US on nuclear weapons.
The US certainly takes all nuclear threats seriously, but you're living in a dreamland if you think the US fears China's nuclear capability and sees it as strategic leverage over it.
Any attempt to escalate a conflict to nuclear would be shear folly on the part of the CCP
China could certainly hope to hit the US with nukes and cause widespread damage but the nuclear retaliation that would follow on China would be completely asymmetrical and would leave China devastated for generations. Something that China's 2nd strike abilites couldn't even dream to match.
Don't forget - China could not afford to use it's nukes on luxury targets like L.A. It would need to use every nuke it had to take out the US's massive second strike capability - so its small nuclear arsenal would need to be dispersed amongst a wide array of targets across the globe including Diego Gracia, Guam, Barksdale and any number of remote nuclear strike facilities the US has. And this doesn't even take into account the US's SSBN fleet which will remain unfettered to shoot its load all over China.
Really... where are you getting your ideas from...?
Hot debate. What do you think?
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October 23rd, 2011 at 1:07 am
@ Gloria: well thats what the US is generally good for. Make a mess of things and profiting. You can tell their economy is based that way too. Offbalance sheet transactions, derivative of a derivative, subprime...are all proudly made in the US of A.
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October 23rd, 2011 at 8:48 am
Gloria, you are not a Filipina. Filipinas don't write like you. You must be a Chinese the way you construct your sentences. Give it up girl! show them your true colors. I cannot even understand what your saying. We don't talk like that. Sorry you don't look like one too! Your comments are invalid! LOL!
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October 23rd, 2011 at 11:50 am
"I cannot even understand what your saying" yeah when the war if finished having your country as the war front while China and U.S's land remain intact you'll understand. Little puppets of the U.S.
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October 23rd, 2011 at 3:39 pm
Sam S(hit), Why are you so mad? Are you Gloria Banatao? You see you avatar? That's the way you should behave, tape your mouth and shut up!
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October 23rd, 2011 at 7:14 pm
sa James kampilan pinaka bobo highway tanga Worldwide, ikaw ang tanging manika amerikano wala kang pagpapahalaga sa sarili bilang ang Pilipinas, sa Pilipinas ay hindi gusto ang mga Amerikano mga tao muling lumikha ng isang batayan ng digmaan, ang Pilipinas ay may maraming mga batang babae ay raped sa pamamagitan ng Amerikanong sundalo alam mo ito ay bobo
to james kampilan most stupid fool Worldwide highway, you're the only doll american you have no pride as the Philippines, the Philippines did not want the American people re-create a base of war, the Philippines has a lot of girls are raped by American soldiers you know it's stupid
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October 23rd, 2011 at 9:40 pm
So the Filipina crab came out. Tang ina mo din. Ano ka tuta ng mga instik? Gago ka din. Walang Hiya ka. Pupunta punta ka dito para magatake ng mga Pilipino. You must be a communist. Gago ka din. Stupida ka din. Ulol ka din.
Bakit na rape ka na ba that's why galit na galit ka sa mga amerikano? Huwag mo akong mumurahin. communista ka. You are part of the communist movement dito sa Pilipinas.
A communist Filipino crab!
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October 23rd, 2011 at 9:44 pm
rofl Philippines came out to kick your wanna be white-butt!! James oh james, look at your avatar. That's ur shit face everytime you loose an argument.
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October 23rd, 2011 at 11:28 pm
Sam S(hit), you chinks why are you so angry? Why are you so insecure? YOu use Gloria Banatao from Google to translate her words? filipinos don't talk like that. You're full of crap Sam. Can't have a sane argument with you.
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October 23rd, 2011 at 11:45 pm
Tienfei, you want to know how 400 million Chinese disappeared? Look at the website by Chai Ling, http://www.allgirlsallowed.org. Maybe if you are truly open-minded this will enlighten you. You have a great country. Don't let it to rot.
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October 24th, 2011 at 5:25 am
James Kampilan, rofl who is the angry white wanna be trash jerking himself off hating another country?? not me. Ur full of crap Philippine dog. Kamikaze navy rofl!! I guess that's ur version of a "sane" argument, i imagine your navy love to hear you call them suicide bombers rofl!!
You know why no military infrastructures of both South Korea and U.S are stationed anywhere near Seoul? Because they assume once the war breaks out anything alone the line of Seoul toward North Korea's border will be wiped out clean by artillery. Sure, the U.S can win eventually but at what cost? At the cost of leveling out entire South Korea? If that happens they already lost the purpose of the war. The South can have superior navy and air force to achieve tactical victories but that is not remotely enough to stop an enemy without regard for anything. This is why there is no for Chinese intervention. The South will win but will be devastated and they will be grateful that China-now their number 1 economic partner didn't not help the North.
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October 24th, 2011 at 1:42 pm
increasingly evident is not it, if james kampilan just a dumb, stupid, brain shrimp, dumb ass, if you know it's hi ... kampilan james, shame on you for all the people of the Philippines, you do not understand what rape victims, I hope you wife, you're a young girl raped during the American army, so you can feel the grief the families of victims of rape, then maybe the heart, mind can be changed, to just be a pilipina just not as an American puppet or doll anyone, and I am not a communist and a Catholic I am not an American hater, I am a peace rather than war-loving, good mother maria let me touch you realize what it means to be a pilipina the genuine and independent, not as American puppets, and be a true worshiper of God, full of love, not hatred like you're my brother, James kampilan, and do not become worshipers of America, and coveting a war, because of hatred and war only the instrument 666 lucifer devil , you know it's stupid james kampilan of the Philippines, mind you my brother, I was me, I was banatao gloria, I am not sam, you should know that
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October 24th, 2011 at 5:35 pm
You can't speak Tagalog Gloria, your Tagalog is twisted. You are a fake! Quit using Google! A fellow Filipino does not speak like you not unless you are with the Communist Party! Your sentences construction are wrong. So obvious! Now show your ass! Good job Sam S(hit).
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October 24th, 2011 at 6:02 pm
Angry kid is angry. This is what happens when losers likes James Kampala can't argue a point and becomes grammar police troll. Good job keep up animal.
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October 24th, 2011 at 6:35 pm
LOL @ James kampilan kayo ay isang tanga ikaw ay natatakot na kung isulat ko sa Ingles inaasahan mo sa akin na magsulat sa tagalog na wika sabihin walang isa alam mo na, kung ano ang sinasabi ko.
LOL @ james kampilan you were a fool you're afraid that if I write in English you expect me to write in tagalog language let no one know what I say.
hindi bale hindi mo kailangang i-debate mas sabihin mo kung ano ang isulat mo ikaw ay nakakahiya ang Filipino sa bansa
never mind you do not have to debate the more you say what you write you're embarrassing the Filipino nation
Napagtanto na pipi kapatid na lalaki, James kampilan, huwag aasahan ng digmaan, pabayaan mag-isa sa mga estado china, hindi gusto ibon ng dakhok handa upang labanan ang, mo na nakita ang aming generals hukbong-dagat hindi magkaroon ng sa humihingi ng paumanhin sa mga Intsik hukbo, ibig sabihin kung ano? nangangahulugan na ang aming mga sundalo ay takot ng digmaan laban sa China, ikaw lamang ang populasyong sibil, tanga muli,
realize that dumb brother, James kampilan, do not expect a war, let alone with state china, do not like duck hawk willing to fight, you've seen our navy generals not to have to apologize to the Chinese army, that means what? means that our soldiers are afraid of war against China, you are only civilians, fool again
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October 24th, 2011 at 7:27 pm
Close but no cigar! You are too dependent on Google translation! You do not say "pipi kapatid na lalaki" (dumb male brother) - you say "pinping kapatid na lalaki" - just shows you Google is stupid, maybe not you. Nice try. Your literal translation is so different from proper English. Still deficient, just like your Chinese brains! If you were a monkey, they would have cut it in half, take off half of your skull and stick your head in a hole in the middle of a table with everyone ready to pick your brains. Well, Hong Kong actually practices it. Maybe it's the Cantonese culture? I've not seen that here in PH. Most are from Fujian province. Very decent, well mannered people.
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October 31st, 2011 at 9:51 am
China and N Korea have same faith, surrounded by US base and country that pro-US. Toward US policy to Taiwan, I think China need to strengthen North Korea military by cooperation or modernization as a "guarantee". If Taiwan issues broke into war, can be predict Japan as closes nation will help defend Taiwan, and US will send all they Pacific strength to Taiwan, and S Korea no one knows where they gonna stand if there's Taiwan conflict? S Korea is pro-US country and if there's conflict US will ask them to join in, maybe Australia and Britain will go war with China. NATO too. Russia won't happy if US invade China and swarming around along in their border and gonna stop this by diplomacy mean or by force. US and their allies will gonna facing tough time, China is not Balkan, or Iraq or Afghanistan. Ruin China is gonna bad for US economic and Asia economic "health".
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November 1st, 2011 at 1:00 pm
During the Korean war. The entire UN faction fought China. Japan didnt take part because they couldnt be trusted. Same way germany took no part in the Libyan bombings. These countries dont really have independent foreign policies. Strengthening North Korea is a great idea since its your buffer state. Then there is that nuke they have. Thats pretty much the game breaker right there. At least regionally.
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November 1st, 2011 at 1:03 pm
Of course, I did forget one thing. This is because China and Russia never vetoed the war in Korea. Had there been a veto, that would have prevented any multilateral force.
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January 20th, 2012 at 3:47 pm
@Reasons,
Nobody knows how many nuclear weapons China reallly possessed. It is merely guesstimate. You are just repeating what your CIA had stated.
Although, China has fewer ICBM than US but Chinese ICBM each carries more than a Megaton warhead and most of them carry multiple warheads.
One is enough to vaporise the entire Los Angeles.
Yes, US fear China Nuclear weapons because most of Chinese ICBM are mobile and cannot be destroyed easily and Chinese has the means of Retaliation.
With China growing economy and advancement in Military Science in recent years,
she could easily increase her stock pile of Nuclear Weapons and narrow down the numerical advantage of the US.
Actually, the Chinese has been prepared for such eventuallity since Mao's time
when US had threaten to nuke China on several occassions. If China is afraid of US Nuclear threat, she would have not fought US during the Korean and Vietnam War.
China has an underground great wall that streches more than few thousand kilometers and the Chinese Government had openly declare they are prepared for any eventuallity if US get involve in a fight for Taiwan Independence.
The Bush and Obama Administration have taken this threat seriously.
In my conclusion, Nobody will win in a Nuclear Exchange.
It is Mutual Destruction and sad for man kind.
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March 31st, 2012 at 6:56 am
@Tienfei North Korea DOES NOT have the means to deliver a nuclear bomb....Look it up.....So your theory of them having a nuclear advantage over SK does not stand up.
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March 31st, 2012 at 9:19 am
They have missiles. They can also fly it over.
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