2012-06-04 (bizjournals.com and by Steve Wilhelm)– China’s aerospace industry may be linking up with the Russians as a next step toward building wide-body aircraft to compete against both Boeing and Airbus.
You won’t see a Chinese competitive wide-body jet for many years, if not decades — but a news item in the Russian financial newspaper Vedomosti is worth noting.
The lead story on the newspaper’s digital front page (courtesy of Google Translator), says that Russia’s United Aircraft Corp. and China’s Commercial Aircraft Corporation of China Ltd. (COMAC), “Intend to establish a JV (joint venture) to develop a new long-haul aircraft based on Il-96. Russia will provide the know-how, China — money.”
The newspaper was financed by the Wall Street Journal and the Financial Times, so it should have some credibility.
(And tip of the hat to FlightBlogger for picking up on this. That online publication said the pact will be announced by Russian President Vladimir Putin on June 6.)
Building a new aircraft based on the Russian Il-96 would be a bit like developing a new car based on the Oldsmobile, which was competitive in its day but is now extinct.
Actually, it wouldn’t be as competitive as that, because only 18 of the four-engine Ilyushin wide bodies are now flying, even though the model was certified in 1992. Compared to similar Boeing and Airbus wide-body models, it is heavy and inefficient, although the last models were outfitted with Pratt & Whitney engines.
But China is pouring money into its aircraft development programs, as it vies to catch up with the West in this area as well as others.
Boeing Commercial Airplanes division CEO Jim Albaugh, speaking June 1 at the Aviation Club in the United Kingdom, said China’s aircraft program is the biggest threat to Boeing.
So what would China gain from a partnership with Russia? Probably some core knowledge about how to build a functioning wide-body plane, which the Chinese could eventually leverage into building a competitive airplane.
“The Chinese don’t do anything unless there’s some benefit for them,” said Scott Hamilton, an aerospace analyst who’s president of Leeham LLC, of Issaquah. “I think it’s more that they learn a bit here, then something else, and they combine the two to move forward.”
China already has signed a pact with Canada’s Bombardier, probably with a similar agenda.With 4,000 years of history, China has a very long view — and as the world’s biggest exporter, it now has very deep pockets. (Take a look at an interview this week with Puget Sound-area Chinese leader Yushi Shen, who shares his view of time, and of the differences between China and the United States.)
“The Chinese are very patient people,” Hamilton said. “They waited 99 years to get Hong Kong and Macao back, what’s waiting 20 to 30 years to have an efficient aircraft industry?”
As a reference point, Hamilton points out that Airbus’ first aircraft, the A300, was behind the era’s cutting edge of aircraft design, but was an essential step for Airbus to take in order to go head-to-head with Boeing.
COMAC’s current C919, a competitor to the Boeing 737 Max and Airbus A320neo, also is a step behind, but the C919 also is a stepping stone.
“It will be an OK airplane, it’s going to be a proof-of-concept airplane,” Hamilton said about the C919.
So if COMAC and Ilyushin really do link up, look to the long view.
It probably will happen if China decides to join a joint venture. For China to do it themselves would probably take 15 years. If they join with Russia the period Russian sources give is about 7/8 years. The Russians have the experience in large aircraft. The IL96 – the AN124 – Il76 and Tupelov etc. The Superjet and MS-21 is giving them more experience and exposure to Western Technology and composite use etc.
There United Engine Company is now quickly bringing there engines up to world standards in terms of ease of service fuel efficiency and engine life. Being United they obviously have got organized and with new Government transport orders and money they are moving quickly. They now claim all development work is done on there PD14 series [PS-90A series] [one version designed for the new MS21 and one for the new IL476 transport - the MS 21 version is equal in there mind to the PW1400G they have an agreement to use on the MS21] and it will be on the market in about 2015/2016. All are considered low risk developments. They are also upgrading the D-18T on the present AN124 to Series4 for the now revived AN124 and they have finance for a Series 5 version that will be truly world class with about 27,000kg thrust by about 2016/2017. With most of these engines they will achieve good volume as they are easy to retrofit to all older Russian aircraft. e.g. the IL76 and older AN124′s etc. Also they are starting work on a PD30. A 30,000kg engine of world class. The experience gained in the PD14 upgrade will be used. They are basing it on previous research on the NK-65, NK-93 and say it is a fast low risk way of doing it and research to date says it will be comparable to other world class engines in all respects. That has been there main problem – world class engines. They are now in the pipeline. The key to service in many ways has been getting Volume. They should now achieve that in the next 5 years on there home market and in there military transport exports.
As part of there concerted effort to upgrade there motors to Western Standards they have not hesitated to buy in critical parts from the West. There experience also producing the SaM146 under lisense for the Superjet will have helped. The Russian aircraft industry now seems to be on the move again after 20 years.
They do not seem interested in building a new wide body themselves so it will all depend on a deal with China. Both there home markets combined should make it viable with some exports. It is not as if Russia is starting from nothing.
The only thing I can see stopping it is Airbus or Boeing not wanting to lose the Chinese and Russian wide-body market. In the case of China a very big present and even bigger potential market.
Maybe one of them will offer to go in with the Chinese – a partnership may be considered preferable to losing a large slice of the Chinese market especially. I don’t know how the US Gov. would look on the Technology transfer that would be involved. That would cut Russia out and make it a long time if ever before Russia even tried to enter the wide body market if ever.
I am not an expert but that’s how I see it.